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RISK INTELLIGENCE REPORTS - 19th April 2025

Circular Ref: O(25)27

Members are invited to consider the most recent Risk Intelligence reports provided at the annexes as follows:

· Annex A – Red Sea Updates
· Annex B – Northern Black Sea Updates

Annex A details the most recent security updates in the Red Sea, noting that following US airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, the Houthis have retaliated by targeting Israeli territory and US Navy vessels rather than commercial shipping. Nonetheless, rising tensions and active strikes in the Red Sea pose a threat to ships transiting the area, and the risk assessment remains high.

Annex B provides the most recent updates in the Black Sea. This annex highlights that while there have been diplomatic movements towards ceasefire negotiations, nothing has yet been finalised, and therefore the threat outlook remains unchanged. American and Russian delegations plan to discuss safety of navigation in the Black Sea during upcoming talks, and further details will emerge in the next two weeks.

In accordance with the scope of the agreement between ICS and Risk Intelligence, members are requested not to circulate the report further in its entirety. Members may precis the report or use extracts from it to help advise members on key issues or to assist in enquiries. In such cases, Risk Intelligence should be acknowledged as the source of the information.

MC(25)49 -Annex A – RI Red Sea Security Update 20.3.25

MC(25)49 -Annex B – RI Black Sea Security Update 20.3.25

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