RISK INTELLIGENCE REPORTS 7th August 2025
Members are invited to consider the most recent Risk Intelligence reports provided at the annexes as follows:
· Annex A – Mid East Updates
· Annex B – Northern Black Sea Updates
Annex A summarises the security updates from the past week in the Mid East region, noting that no major events have taken place in either the Red Sea or Persian Gulf. The seizure of a vessel by Puntland Forces and in the Southern Red Sea by “Yemeni-government aligned forces” are independent incidents unrelated to both each other and to the Houthis.
Annex B recaps the security updates in the Northern Black Sea from the past week, noting that Russian attacks have continued throughout Ukraine but been concentrated on Kyiv. There have been no reports of adverse effects on port operations or through the Black Sea corridor. The deadline set by the US President for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is set to expire on 8 August, it is expected that if a ceasefire is not announced that the US will implement secondary sanctions on countries conducting business with Russia. Further, it’s assessed that the most likely option for a cessation of hostilities is a highly limited ceasefire, such as a prohibition of airborne weapons, which would reduce the threat of strikes against ports.
In accordance with the scope of the agreement between ICS and Risk Intelligence, members are requested not to circulate the report further in its entirety. Members may precis the report or use extracts from it to help advise members on key issues or to assist in enquiries. In such cases, Risk Intelligence should be acknowledged as the source of the information.