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RISK INTELLIGENCE REPORTS - 29th January 2026

Circular Ref: O(26)09

Members may recall that the UK Government has decided to implement an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). Initially, international emissions at berth will be included, with first compliance period from July to December 2026.

There is also an ongoing consultation with respect to potential further requirements to monitor and report 100% of greenhouse gas emissions on a voyage between a UK port and a port outside of the UK, with operators required to surrender allowances to cover 50% of their emissions.

The UK Environmental Agency is strongly encouraging early and voluntary onboarding for the UK ETS. This can be achieved via this link or by emailing: etmaritimehelp@environmentagency.gov.uk

The onboarding process is free of charge.
Members are invited to consider the most recent Risk Intelligence reports provided at the annexes as follows:
· Annex A – Middle East Updates

· Annex B – Northern Black Sea Updates

· Annex C – Monthly Intelligence Report

Annex A summarises the past week’s security updates across the Middle East, where the US President Trump has directly involved himself in Iraqi politics by claiming to remove any US support from Iraq if the former Prime Minister of Iraq, Nouri Al Maliki, is once again elected as PM. Any support that the US may remove from the region will likely be in the oil sector, as the US has had effective control of Iraqi oil exports since the 2003 invasion. Additionally, rhetoric against the Iranian regime has once again increased from the US and Israel in reaction to both the regime’s treatment towards protestors and their continued pursuit of nuclear armament. In response to these increased threats, the Houthis have released a video which is believed to serve as a veiled threat to return to their Red Sea campaign.

Annex B summarises the past week’s security updates in the Black Sea region. Romanian forces successfully dismantled a naval mine, highlighting the continued risk of drifting naval mines in the region. Recent trilateral diplomatic efforts between Ukraine, Russia, and the US has not produced any significant progress, but conversations between these three nations demonstrate a positive step forward for peace negotiations.

Annex C provides a monthly update on attacks against merchant vessels in West Africa, the Western Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. The threat level remains moderate to high across the whole Gulf of Guinea, Persian Gulf, and Singapore Strait. Additionally, the report offers an analysis on US influence in the Caribbean and its implications for maritime operations in Venezuela.

In accordance with the scope of the agreement between ICS and Risk Intelligence, members are requested not to circulate the report further in its entirety. Members may precis the report or use extracts from it to help advise members on key issues or to assist in enquiries. In such cases, Risk Intelligence should be acknowledged as the source of the information.

MC(26)17 -Annex A - RI Mid East Report 3.2.26
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MC(26)17 -Annex B - RI Black Sea Report 3.2.26
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MC(26)17 -Annex C - RI Monthly Intelligence Report Feb 2026
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