RISK INTELLIGENCE REPORTS - 15th May
Members are invited to consider the most recent Risk Intelligence reports provided at the annexes as follows:
· Annex A – Red Sea Updates
· Annex B – Northern Black Sea Updates
Annex A summarises the most recent security updates around the Red Sea, noting that the situation is stable following the ceasefire agreement between the US and the Houthis. However, the Houthi’s continuation of attacks on Israel after the finalisation of this ceasefire underlines their commitment to being perceived as a regional power and a solidaristic ally of Palestine. While there has been no resumption of attacks against civilian vessels, all ships transiting the region should be extremely cautious, as the Houthis may resume attacks if the volume of traffic resumes to a level that undermines their claims of effective embargo.
Annex B details the most recent security situation in the Black Sea, which remains unchanged from last week. The 15 May meeting between Ukrainian and Russian delegations did not yield any changes to the situation, as it’s unlikely that the Russian delegation was entrusted with any real decision-making power. It is expected that as long as Russian troops are making positive progress in the war, they will be unwilling to negotiate a ceasefire.
In accordance with the scope of the agreement between ICS and Risk Intelligence, members are requested not to circulate the report further in its entirety. Members may precis the report or use extracts from it to help advise members on key issues or to assist in enquiries. In such cases, Risk Intelligence should be acknowledged as the source of the information.