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RISK INTELLIGENCE REPORTS. 19th Nov

Circular Ref: O(25)97

Members are invited to consider the most recent Risk Intelligence reports provided at the annexes as follows:-

· Annex A – Middle East Updates
· Annex B – Northern Black Sea Updates

Annex A summarises the last week’s security updates from around the Middle East. In Gaza, the ceasefire remains formally in place, but continuous violations are occurring. Although there has been some reporting this week that the Houthis have ended their Red Sea campaign, there has been no formal announcement as to a cessation or suspension of the campaign. Consequently, the threat level remains unchanged for the region.

Annex B summarises the last week’s security updates in the Black Sea, where there has been an increase in large-scale drone and missile attacks from Russia largely focused on the Western Black Sea coastline. Russia has reiterated that it remains open to finding a political and diplomatic settlement, but until then will keep fighting, highlighting their continued commitment to the war.

In accordance with the scope of the agreement between ICS and Risk Intelligence, members are requested not to circulate the report further in its entirety. Members may precis the report or use extracts from it to help advise members on key issues or to assist in enquiries. In such cases, Risk Intelligence should be acknowledged as the source of the information.

MC(25)157 -Annex A - RI Mid East Report 13.11.25
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MC(25)157 -Annex B - RI Black Sea Report 13.11.25
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