RISK INTELLIGENCE REPORTS. 21st August 2025
Members are invited to consider the most recent Risk Intelligence reports provided at the annexes as follows:
· Annex A – Mid East Updates
· Annex B – Northern Black Sea Updates
Annex A summarises the security updates across the Middle East in the past week. No major incidents have occurred in both the Persian Gulf and Red Seas, as the situation has appeared to have stabilised compared to earlier this Summer. Iran and Iraq have finalised a new security agreement, which will formalise the Iranian-backed “Popular Militarization Forces” who secure the Iran-Iraq border. While the agreement focuses on land borders, it is assessed that this agreement is a precursor to Iran’s desire to extend its air defences to Iraq in the future.
Annex B provides the most recent security updates in the Black Sea region over the past week, during which Russian forces have continued their drone attacks on civilian objects across Ukraine. Notably, port infrastructure at Izmail was hit on 20 August and the Panama-flagged Excellion likely sustained damaged during the incident. Due to the increase in strikes around the Ismail region, the threat risk for Ukrainian Danube ports has been increased. While recent US-Ukraine-Russia talks showed growing American support for Ukrainian concerns, Russia is unlikely to engage seriously in peace negotiations if it continues making military gains on the frontlines of the war.
In accordance with the scope of the agreement between ICS and Risk Intelligence, members are requested not to circulate the report further in its entirety. Members may precis the report or use extracts from it to help advise members on key issues or to assist in enquiries. In such cases, Risk Intelligence should be acknowledged as the source of the information.