RISK INTELLIGENCE REPORTS 2nd October 2025
Members are invited to consider the most recent Risk Intelligence reports provided at the annexes as follows:-
· Annex A – Monthly Update
· Annex B – Middle East Update
· Annex C – Northern Black Sea Update
Annex A covers incidents that have taken place across the Middle East, Black Sea, West Africa, and Southeast Asia along with an analysis on the actions and potential next steps for the Houthis. Offering four visions for the Houthis’ future based on the variable internal strength of the Houthi regime relative to other domestic rivals and the variable degree of international targeting of the Houthi regime, it is assessed that the Houthi campaign in the Red Sea will continue until they are satisfied with whatever end state emerges in Gaza.
Annex B summarises the past week’s security updates across the Middle East, where the Houthis struck the Minveragracht on 29 September, disabling the vessel and leading to the evacuation of the crew by helicopter. The Houthi leadership later claimed that the strike was conducted because the owning company had ties with Israel, however no Israeli connection has been found by secondary sources.
Annex C covers the past week’s security updates in the Black Sea, where there have been unconfirmed reports of a Russian attack against the port of Izmail, however due to the continued lack of information around this incident it has been assessed that these reports are likely part of a disinformation campaign. Further, fishermen in Turkish waters recovered an unmanned surface vessel (USV) carrying 300 kg of explosives. These recent incidents do not indicate a change in the threat picture across the region.
In accordance with the scope of the agreement between ICS and Risk Intelligence, members are requested not to circulate the report further in its entirety. Members may precis the report or use extracts from it to help advise members on key issues or to assist in enquiries. In such cases, Risk Intelligence should be acknowledged as the source of the information.
MC(25)143 -Annex A – RI Monthly Intelligence Report October 2025