RISK INTELLIGENCE REPORTS
Action required: Members are invited to consider the Risk Intelligence reports provided at annexes A, B, and C and to circulate them as appropriate, noting the scope of the agreement between ICS and Risk Intelligence.
Members are invited to consider the most recent Risk Intelligence reports provided at the annexes as follows:-
· Annex A – Monthly Intelligence Update
· Annex B – Red Sea Updates
· Annex C – Northern Black Sea Updates
Annex A provides a monthly briefing on the state of security around the world, with specific focuses on the war in Ukraine, West Africa, the Western Indian Ocean, and South East Asia. It also provides an analysis on current trends in irregular migration across the Mediterranean, noting that migration will likely increase with the return of summer. While instances of migration across the central Mediterranean decreased by 59% from 2023 to 2024, instances of migration across the western and eastern Mediterranean routes have increased between 2023 and 2024. Further, there are an estimated 825,000 migrants currently in Libya waiting for a chance to cross the sea, which is about 175,000 more people than two years ago. Annex A also recognises the Straits of Malacca and Singapore (SOMS) as an area of prevalent concern for piracy. Nine incidents of piracy and armed robbery occurred in the SOMS in April, reflecting a decrease in incident numbers and severity from those in March.
Annex B summarises the last week’s security situation in the Red Sea, where the situation has not significantly evolved. The US is continuing its strikes against the Houthis in Yemen, and Israel has continued its operations in Gaza. The US and Iran talks are also continuing, and it increasingly looks as though the result of these negotiations will mirror the past nuclear agreement between the two nations. There are also reports that the US demanded free passage for US-flagged vessels through the Suez Canal as a form of compensation for the US campaign against the Houthis, which Egypt has reportedly refused.
Annex C details the security situation in the Black Sea over the last week, which has also not changed significantly. The US and Ukraine have recently agreed to a deal regarding the future use of Ukraine’s mineral resources, which also includes provisions for the sale of more US weapons to Ukraine. Further, it seems as though as ground fighting has intensified in the recent weeks, the Russians have been avoiding targeting port infrastructure. However, this pause does not rule out the possibility of future attacks, and caution should be maintained when transiting the area.
In accordance with the scope of the agreement between ICS and Risk Intelligence, members are requested not to circulate the report further in its entirety. Members may precis the report or use extracts from it to help advise members on key issues or to assist in enquiries. In such cases, Risk Intelligence should be acknowledged as the source of the information.
MC(25)65 -Annex A – RI Monthly Intelligence Report May 2025