Members are invited to consider the most recent Risk Intelligence reports provided at the annexes as follows:

· Annex A – Red Sea Updates
· Annex B – Northern Black Sea Updates
· Annex C – Maritime Implications of the Iran-Israel Conflict Update
· Annex D – Joint Maritime Information Center Advisory

Annex A covers the most recent security developments in the Red Sea, where the threat level in the Persian Gulf is heightened due to the Iran-Israeli and Houthi-Israeli missile exchanges across the region. Provided that the current Iranian regime does not feel existentially threatened, the country is not expected to cut off oil flow or traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian and Israeli ports are under fire; however, no moving vessels have been targeted. GNSS, AIS, and other signal jamming is expected to continue in the area.

Annex B summarises the most recent security developments in the Black Sea region, which note that the Russian attacks against civilian infrastructure in recent weeks have not affected ports, however the potential for ports to be targeted remains and therefore caution is advised in the region.

Annex C provides the most recent analysis of the maritime implications stemming from the Iran-Israel conflict. Following the United States’ strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on 21 June; Iran has threatened retaliation. This retaliation is expected to prioritise regime survival and conserve ammunition for a longer-term campaign against Israel. In the immediate future, Iran is expected to continue targeting port facilities in Israel with a specific focus on Haifa port and the Israeli coast. Iran may choose to target merchant shipping associated with the US or Israel in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman through seizures. Though the strategic benefit of this option is limited, it would be a way of demonstrating clear retaliation to the Iranian public. Further, while it is unlikely that Iran will choose to entirely close the Strait of Hormuz, an aide to Ayatollah Khamenei has referred to banning “American, British, German, and French ships” from transiting the strait as an appropriate response to American involvement.

Annex D is the most recent JMIC advisory following the United States’ strikes on Iran. The regional threat level is assessed as significant while the maritime threat level is elevated. JMIC further notes that the Houthis are continuing to issue threats for traffic in the Red Sea in response to direct American involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict. There are persistently high levels of electronic interference throughout the region and increasing ship congestion near Dubai and the southern Gulf of Oman.

In accordance with the scope of the agreement between ICS and Risk Intelligence, members are requested not to circulate the report further in its entirety. Members may precis the report or use extracts from it to help advise members on key issues or to assist in enquiries. In such cases, Risk Intelligence should be acknowledged as the source of the information.

MC(25)86 – Annex A – 19.6.25 RI Red Sea Report

MC(25)86 – Annex B – RI Black Sea Security Update 19.6.25

MC(25)86 – Annex C – June 2025 – Risk Intelligence Client Briefing – Iran-Israel conflict – Update

MC(25)86 – Annex D – 008 JMIC Advisory Note _Update_ 011