Please find attached the most recent Risk Intelligence reports provided at the annexes as follows:

· Annex A – Middle East Updates
· Annex B – Northern Black Sea Updates

Annex A summarises the security updates across the Middle East from the past week. In Yemen, the security situation remains static despite shifts in influence between the Republic of Yemen, the Houthis, and the Southern Transitional Council (STC) – who now control the port city of Aden. While there is increased media attention on the STC, the balance of power in-country has not majorly changed and is not expected to impact the Red Sea.

Annex B summarises last week’s security updates appear to be a continuation of the increased activity targeting the so-called “shadow fleet.” The attack on the DASHAN in the Black Sea bears similar hallmarks to the Ukrainian-claimed attacks on the KAIROS and VIRAT in late November. Further, the attack on the Filanovsky oil production in the Caspian Sea highlights the Ukrainian’s focus on crippling Russia’s ability to extract, refine, and export petroleum products. Finally, diplomatic efforts between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States are ongoing. The US has named Christmas as their new deadline for Ukraine to commit to the US peace plan, although they have not defined which of the three versions of their peace plan they are referring to.

In accordance with the scope of the agreement between ICS and Risk Intelligence, members are requested not to circulate the report further in its entirety. Members may precis the report or use extracts from it to help advise members on key issues or to assist in enquiries. In such cases, Risk Intelligence should be acknowledged as the source of the information.